Prospects for the Development Trend of China Pulp and Paper Industry from 2017 to2020
Pulp and paper industry policy opportunities
From 2010 to 2015, there are 37.31 million tons of paper production capacity due to environmental requirements by government departments ordered to shut down. The Chinese government plans in “thirteen five” period shut down 8 million tons to 10 million tons backward papermaking capacity, mainly eliminate the current shutdown enterprise or enterprise doesn’t meet the environmental protection requirements. The central environmental protection inspection team to check around the environmental protection situation is expected to strictly enforcing the law enforcement, more than 100 enterprises will be closed.Continued government intervention means that small production capacity and production lines using waste paper and non-wood pulp will be closed. With more and more modern machines to replace this part of the backward production capacity equipment, the long term, wood pulp demand will continue to increase.
China Pulp and Paper Industry Development Trend Judgment
In the global market position: China is still the main driving force
Developed countries demand for paper and paperboard will continue to shrink in the future, is expected by 2020, the United States, Western Europe and Japan, the demand for compound annual growth rate of about -1%; and developing countries, paper and cardboard demand will continue to grow, China, Eastern Europe , Latin America and other countries by 2020 the annual compound growth rate of about 3%. It is expected that global demand for paper and paperboard will grow by 27.24 million tonnes from 2015 to 2020, with 65% growth coming from China, and China remains the main driver of global demand for paper and paperboard. It is expected that from 2005 to 2020, global demand for bleached pulp will grow by 6.7 million tons and 70% growth comes from China. At the same time, from 2015 to 2020, China’s demand for waste paper pulp will maintain a 3% growth.
China’s paper production capacity will continue to grow
Driven by economic development needs, China’s paper production capacity will continue to grow, but deviated from the growth rate of GDP. Thanks to online shopping and emerging logistics, wrapping paper is the main driving force for the growth of Chinese paper production. China’s paper production is expected to continue to increase by 13 million tons by 2020, with 70% growth coming from packaging.
China’s paper industry will continue to optimize the internal structure
Paper quality continues to improve, high-quality products will continue to squeeze low-quality products market, high-end paper began to squeeze low-end paper market. Differentiation, customization, personalized products increased.
Production growth rate higher than the growth rate of consumption, will promote papermaking enterprises through the elimination of backward production capacity, mergers and acquisitions or transformation and upgrading, going out, etc. to promote the paper industry to optimize the internal environment.Corporate profits polarization, concentration will continue to increase. Advantages Enterprise profitability is increasing, mergers and acquisitions, cross-border development increased. Increased environmental friendliness.
Chinese companies will be more involved in global competition
Since 2007, China has developed from a net importer of paper into a net exporter. 2016 years January to September, China’s paper exports increased by about 20%, excess production will continue to continue to grow foreign sales, China’s pulp and paper enterprises will also increase overseas investment.
China’s future pulp industry in the form of grim, domestic non-wood pulp manufacturers will be a large-scale shutdown
If the new capacity production on schedule, the second half of 2017 the global supply of broad-leaved pulp will appear in the stage of excess. Wood pulp enterprises shut down and turn will increase, the domestic non-wood pulp manufacturers will be a large-scale shutdown.
In short, the total amount of Chinese paper into the balanced development period, the Chinese paper industry will continue to optimize the internal structure. China’s paper production will continue to grow, but the growth rate is less than GDP growth; thanks to online shopping and emerging logistics, packaging paper is the main driving force for the growth of Chinese paper production; Chinese enterprises overseas investment will continue to increase; high-quality products will continue Squeeze low-quality products market, high-end paper will be squeezed low-end paper market. Differentiation, customization, personalized products increased; corporate profits polarization, concentration will continue to increase. Advantages of corporate profitability continue to increase, mergers and acquisitions, cross-border development increased; manufacturing process to increase the degree of environmental friendliness.